有很多方法可以改善你的決策,但是兩個簡單的規則會特別有用。
- 對你的決策過程的每一部分都不那麼確定。思考選擇A會導致結果B?這可能比你想像的要少。認為結果B優於結果C?你可能對此也太自信了。重新審視你的决定的邏輯。如果你不確定原因B,或者B比C更好,你還會想到什麼?
- 經常問自己:“這種情況通常發生嗎?”例如,如果你正在考慮為一家創業公司提供資金,你可能會問:創業公司的比例有多大?(或者,成功的百分比是多少?)接受你知道的比你認為的少是開始做出更好决定的最好方法之一。
There
are many ways to improve your decision making, but two simple rules can be
particularly helpful.
- Be less certain — about every part of your decision-making process. Think choice A will lead to outcome B? It’s probably less likely than you believe. Think outcome B is preferable to outcome C? You’re probably too confident about that as well. Revisit the logic of your decisions. What else would you think about if you were less sure that A causes B, or that B is preferable to C?
- Always ask yourself, “How often does that typically happen?” For example, if you were considering funding a startup, you might ask: What percentage of startups fail? (Or, what percentage succeed?) Accepting that you know less than you think you do is one of the best ways to start making better decisions.









