做更好決策的兩條規則

有很多方法可以改善你的決策，但是兩個簡單的規則會特別有用。

1. 對你的決策過程的每一部分都不那麼確定。思考選擇A會導致結果B？這可能比你想像的要少。認為結果B優於結果C？你可能對此也太自信了。重新審視你的决定的邏輯。如果你不確定原因B，或者B比C更好，你還會想到什麼？
2. 經常問自己：“這種情況通常發生嗎？”例如，如果你正在考慮為一家創業公司提供資金，你可能會問：創業公司的比例有多大？（或者，成功的百分比是多少？）接受你知道的比你認為的少是開始做出更好决定的最好方法之一。

Two Rules for Making Better Decisions

There are many ways to improve your decision making, but two simple rules can be particularly helpful.

1. Be less certain — about every part of your decision-making process. Think choice A will lead to outcome B? It’s probably less likely than you believe. Think outcome B is preferable to outcome C? You’re probably too confident about that as well. Revisit the logic of your decisions. What else would you think about if you were less sure that A causes B, or that B is preferable to C?
2. Always ask yourself, “How often does that typically happen?” For example, if you were considering funding a startup, you might ask: What percentage of startups fail? (Or, what percentage succeed?) Accepting that you know less than you think you do is one of the best ways to start making better decisions.