2016年3月14日 星期一

考慮在你事業經營上的風險

一個好的事業經營案例會提出這樣的問題:“如果我們採取這樣的行動,會發生什麼?”但是,並非任何事情都會依據計劃來發生的。
你不但要確保你所考慮到的風險,並且要考慮到萬一你做錯了假設時仍然能夠守住的價值。
多數人會關注在一些風險上,例如:萬一供應商不能準時交貨?萬一原物料的成本漲到天價的高?萬一你不能準時發表新產品?等等。
但是,你也要同時考慮到一些機會面,例如:你如何能夠從投資上獲得較高的回報或是較快的回收?你能否較快完成項目?你能夠建立起最佳的團隊嗎?
考慮好每一項假設,以及它可能會如何產生變化。

Consider the risks in your business operation
A good business case raises the question, "What happens if we do this?" But not everything will happen according to plan.
Not only do you have to make sure you take into account the risks, but you also have to take into account the value you can hold on to in case you make a wrong assumption.
Most people will be concerned about some risks, for example, in case suppliers fail to deliver on time. Should the cost of raw materials rise to a high price? What if you can't publish new products on time? Wait.
But you also have to consider opportunities, such as how can you get a higher return on your investment or a faster return on it? Can you finish the project sooner? Can you build the best team?
Consider every hypothesis and how it might change.

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